Live backtest results · engine v2026.07.08.1

Does it pay — and stay solvent?

Can a system distribute consistent cash yields through bear markets, hacks, and crashes — and still remain solvent? ARC is the reserve architecture built to answer that. Below are raw backtest results across 12 assets and multi-year windows. No marketing. Just numbers.

Cash Yield / yr
15.00%
annualized PayBack distributed · median 30d windows
Systems passing
2/12
pass cash yield + solvency bar · 2 fragile
Value returned
133%
(Earned + ARCA + ARCI) ÷ outside capital · median
Asset classes
5A · 7F
A = full criteria · F = flow-through mode

Assets

Scan the four primaries — then open any asset for the full backtest path, charts, and scorecard.

12Assets tested
5 Class Apass full criteria
$10.42BTotal PayBack distributed
$131.65BNet throughput
Latest run: 2026.07.10
Key terms

BTC

Class A Yield-Harvested
Run 2026.07.10
Inspect →

Sacrificed peak compounding beta to successfully harvest and distribute cash yield.

PayBack / yr
15.00%
median 30d windows · not 15% cap
Total PayBack
$2.53B
cumulative
UN Buyback
$812.9M
UN Sleeve Gross (Cum)
Throughput
1,079%
net / protected avg
PayBack executed · pinch/drag · 100% resets view

ETH

Class A Yield-Harvested
Run 2026.07.10
Inspect →

Harvested yield against a strong tape, but solvency headroom still deserves review.

PayBack / yr
15.00%
median 30d windows · not 15% cap
Total PayBack
$3.13B
cumulative
UN Buyback
$1.50B
UN Sleeve Gross (Cum)
Throughput
731%
net / protected avg
PayBack executed · pinch/drag · 100% resets view

NVDA

Class A Yield-Harvested
Run 2026.07.10
Inspect →

Sacrificed peak compounding beta to successfully harvest and distribute cash yield.

PayBack / yr
15.00%
median 30d windows · not 15% cap
Total PayBack
$1.54B
cumulative
UN Buyback
$1.73B
UN Sleeve Gross (Cum)
Throughput
894%
net / protected avg
PayBack executed · pinch/drag · 100% resets view

LINK

Class F Qualified
Run 2026.07.10
Inspect →

Clears the cash-realized bar; solvency headroom still deserves review.

PayBack / yr
15.00%
median 30d windows · not 15% cap
Total PayBack
$778.8M
cumulative
UN Buyback
$1.17B
UN Sleeve Gross (Cum)
Throughput
611%
net / protected avg
PayBack executed · pinch/drag · 100% resets view

AAVE

Class F Qualified
Run 2026.07.10
Inspect →

Clears the cash-realized bar; solvency headroom still deserves review.

PayBack / yr
15.00%
median 30d windows · not 15% cap
Total PayBack
$199.3M
cumulative
UN Buyback
$353.8M
UN Sleeve Gross (Cum)
Throughput
671%
net / protected avg
PayBack executed · pinch/drag · 100% resets view

PENDLE

Class F Bootstrapping
Run 2026.07.10
Inspect →

Bootstrapping: 670d sampled in a window shorter than two years, so long-horizon resilience is not proven yet.

PayBack / yr
21.23%
median 30d windows · not 15% cap
Total PayBack
$4.4M
cumulative
UN Buyback
$15.2M
UN Sleeve Gross (Cum)
Throughput
196%
net / protected avg
PayBack executed · pinch/drag · 100% resets view

UNI

Class F Fragile
Run 2026.07.10
Inspect →

Needs tighter scrutiny before presenting as production-grade.

PayBack / yr
15.00%
median 30d windows · not 15% cap
Total PayBack
$203.1M
cumulative
UN Buyback
$330.6M
UN Sleeve Gross (Cum)
Throughput
537%
net / protected avg
PayBack executed · pinch/drag · 100% resets view

ARB

Class F Fragile
Run 2026.07.10
Inspect →

Needs tighter scrutiny before presenting as production-grade.

PayBack / yr
15.00%
median 30d windows · not 15% cap
Total PayBack
$29.9M
cumulative
UN Buyback
$31.6M
UN Sleeve Gross (Cum)
Throughput
191%
net / protected avg
PayBack executed · pinch/drag · 100% resets view

GOOGL

Class A Yield-Harvested
Run 2026.07.10
Inspect →

Harvested yield against a strong tape, but solvency headroom still deserves review.

PayBack / yr
15.00%
median 30d windows · not 15% cap
Total PayBack
$383.6M
cumulative
UN Buyback
$412.0M
UN Sleeve Gross (Cum)
Throughput
824%
net / protected avg
PayBack executed · pinch/drag · 100% resets view

RAIL

Class F Pre-Maturity
Run 2026.07.10
Inspect →

Pre-Maturity: 89d sampled; mature ARCI obligations are not in-window yet.

PayBack / yr
0.64%
median 30d windows · not 15% cap
Total PayBack
$6.4K
cumulative
UN Buyback
$5.6M
UN Sleeve Gross (Cum)
Throughput
117%
net / protected avg
PayBack executed · pinch/drag · 100% resets view

TSLA

Class A Yield-Harvested
Run 2026.07.10
Inspect →

Harvested yield against a strong tape, but solvency headroom still deserves review.

PayBack / yr
15.00%
median 30d windows · not 15% cap
Total PayBack
$1.62B
cumulative
UN Buyback
$768.9M
UN Sleeve Gross (Cum)
Throughput
670%
net / protected avg
PayBack executed · pinch/drag · 100% resets view

ZK

Class F Pre-Maturity
Run 2026.07.10
Inspect →

Pre-Maturity: 341d sampled; mature ARCI obligations are not in-window yet.

PayBack / yr
1.50%
median 30d windows · not 15% cap
Total PayBack
$9.9K
cumulative
UN Buyback
$846.8K
UN Sleeve Gross (Cum)
Throughput
41%
net / protected avg
PayBack executed · pinch/drag · 100% resets view

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Three things to know before judging these results

Backtests are path studies. The endpoint matters, but the route, the thesis, and the time in-window matter too.

Principle 1

Time is part of the strategy

ARC is designed to stay solvent, keep paying, and compound through time — not to win from a single entry-to-exit price move. A favorable endpoint can hide beta, while a hostile path can make genuine defensive performance more informative. Read every result through three lenses: the asset's fundamentals, the length and regimes in the window, and whether cash obligations were actually serviced.

Principle 2

Volatility is survivable when the thesis survives

The ARC case for staying invested rests on two separate supports: the underlying fundamentals of the asset and enough time for the reserve system to remain in the market and capture volatility. A long decline followed by a surge followed by a new low does not automatically invalidate a position — if the thesis and reserve runway both remain intact. That is resilience through a regime sequence, not a promise that price will recover.

Principle 3

A short history is a bootstrap signal, not a verdict

Any asset under two years of simulation cannot establish durability across a full regime cycle or mature obligations. A promising early path is worth noting. It is not worth upgrading into a production-grade claim until the system has serviced a full obligation calendar across multiple market regimes.

Principle 4

A working system still needs a living thesis

Hitting operational goals does not automatically justify continued integration. As fundamentals shift, each asset needs a fresh integration review. The old appeal expires until re-underwritten. The next decision is not automatic continuation — it is an active choice to stay, resize, or exit based on current evidence.

Engine v2026.07.08.1 Assets tested 12 Simulation type backtest (not live trading) Data historical market prices per asset Updated 2026-07-11 Full methodology →